基于学习率的纯电动与燃料电池汽车分场景经济性比较研究

doi:10.19562/j.chinasae.qcgc.2021.02.019

Abstract

Abstract:

High cost of new energy vehicles （NEVs） is one of the most important factors restricting its development in China. In this study， a comprehensive model for economy analysis and comparison of battery electric vehicles （BEV） and fuel cell electric vehicles （FCEV） is constructed. Based on the learning rate curves of major components of NEVs， the future manufacturing cost trends of battery electric and fuel cell passenger cars， buses， and trucks are analyzed and compared. At the same time， combined with the four application scenarios of private car， taxi， bus and logistics vehicle in China， the use cost of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles in each application scenario is analyzed. Finally， the total cost differences between the two technical routes at different time points in the future are compared. The result shows that although the manufacturing cost of range?extended fuel cell vehicles will be lower in the future， the cost advantage of BEVs is distinct， with its total cost more competitive.

Key words: learning rate, fuel cell electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, cost

Bin Qiu,Rujie Yu,Yong Liu,Dongchang Zhao,Jian Song. A Comparative Study on Economy of Battery and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles of Different Application Scenarios Based on Learning Rate[J].Automotive Engineering, 2021, 43(2): 296-304.

Figures/Tables 13

References 42

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研究者	燃料电池系统	储氢瓶	电池包	电机电控	FCEV	BEV
Mattsson & Wene (1997)^[12]	0.13
Sano 等 (2005)^[13]	0.2	0.1		0.1
Matteson & Williams (2015)^[14-15]			0.19~0.23(铅酸) 0.22(锂离子)
Wei等(2017)^[16]	0.18(Micro?CHP) 0.15(PAFC) 0.042(MCFC) 0.01(SOFC)
Seebregts等(1998)^[19]					0.18
Feber等(2003)^[20]	0.18
Schlecht (2003)^[21]	0.2/0.3/0.4
Wurster等(2007)^[22]	0.18→008 0.2→0.1	0.15		0.1
Krzyzanowski (2008)^[23]	0.05-0.2	0.15
Schwoon (2008)^[24]	0.15
Gül等(2009)^[25]	0.15
Kloess & Haas (2009)^[26]			0.075
Weiss等(2012)^[27]				0.23
McDowall & Dodds (2012)^[28]	0.15~0.22	0.1~0.15
Anandarajah等(2013)^[29]	0.18		0.07	0.1
Nykvist & Nilsson (2015)^[30]			0.08/0.14
Ajanovic & Haas (2018)^[31]	0.2
Safari (2018)^[32]				0.15		0.09
Nykvist等(2019)^[33]			0.11/0.16
Hsieh等(2019)^[34]			0.165

项目	燃料电池系统	储氢瓶	动力电池包	电机
学习率	18%^[16,29]	15%^[22-23,28]	16%^[33-34]	15%^[32]
基准成本	1 600元/kW	1 500元/kg	1 600元/(kW·h)	70元/kW

车辆类型	技术路线	系统功率/ kW	储氢瓶容量/kg	电池电量/(kW·h)	电机功率/kW	续驶里程（含氢）/km	整备质量/kg	百公里氢能消耗量/kg
乘用车	全功率	113	5	1.6	110	502	1 850	1
乘用车	增程式	36	5	11.8	50	350	1 800
客车	全功率	228	18	3.2	220
客车	增程式	60	25	41.44	150	450	12 700	5.6
货车	全功率	151	19	2.5	151	365
货车	增程式	30	8	47.5	130	385	4 350	2.1

车辆类型	电池电量/(kW·h)	电机功率/kW	纯电续驶里程/km	整备质量/kg	电池质量/kg	百公里电能消耗量/（kW·h）
乘用车	62.3	135	352	1 900	389	17.4
客车	115.92	160	180	12 700	2 485	64.4
货车	161.3	150	450	4 720	1 374	35.8

使用用途	车辆类型	年行驶里程/ (万km)^[37-38]	生命周期/ 年^[39-40]	车身成本/万元
私家车	乘用车	1.85	12	15
出租车	乘用车	6.7	8	15
城市公交	客车	5.9	7	30
物流车	货车	7.3	8	18

A Comparative Study on Economy of Battery and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles of Different Application Scenarios Based on Learning Rate

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