Abstract:

Carbon reduction in commercial vehicles has become a key bottleneck in reducing carbon emission in China's road transportation. New energy commercial vehicles are seen as an important way to reduce carbon emission in heavy commercial vehicles， but the market penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is much lower than that of other vehicle sectors. However， at present， the development of new energy zero-emission commercial vehicles still faces significant bottlenecks such as complex application scenarios， diversified technological paths， and high cost. This study constructs a Discrete Choice-based Market Evolution of Green Truck Model （DC-MEGT）， a multi-dimensional Logit discrete choice model based on factors such as the total cost of ownership （TCO） and ease of use of new energy vehicles. TCO is calculated using a bottom-up approach， and the usage convenience is quantified and monetized by supplementary energy time cost. A comprehensive utility function is constructed to predict and analyze the market penetration rate evolution of different power types， such as pure electric vehicles， fuel cell vehicles， and zero-emission fuels from the present to 2060. The study analyzes the heavy-duty long-haul towing scenario as an example and finds that the main technology paths in 2060 include fuel cell vehicles， pure electric vehicles， natural gas vehicles， and diesel vehicles， accounting for 48%， 28%， 12%， and 10%， respectively. If the uncertainty of different factors such as policy promotion， technological progress， and business models is taken into account， the market share of pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles in 2060 may fluctuate by 17% ~ 19%.

Key words: new energy commercial vehicles, market penetration rate, discrete choice model, total cost of ownership, usage convenience