汽车工程

汽车工程 ›› 2024, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 253-259.doi: 10.19562/j.chinasae.qcgc.2024.02.007

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中国零碳商用车市场渗透率建模：以重型长途牵引货车为例

郝旭1,陆贤涛1,杨静2,郑亚莉2(),王贺武3()   

  1. 1.北京科技大学机械工程学院，北京 100083
    2.中国汽车工程学会国汽战略院，北京 102600
    3.清华大学，汽车安全与节能国家重点实验室，北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-11 出版日期:2024-02-25 发布日期:2024-02-23
  • 通讯作者: 郑亚莉,王贺武 E-mail:zhengyl@sae-china.org;wanghw@tsinghua.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    清华大学-丰田联合研究基金“新能源汽车-低碳交通协同碳达峰碳中和路线图研究”项目资助

Modeling on the Penetration Rate of China's Commercial Vehicle Market: Taking Heavy-Duty Long-Haul Trucks as an Example

Xu Hao1,Xiantao Lu1,Jing Yang2,Yali Zheng2(),Hewu Wang3()   

  1. 1.School of Mechanical Engineering，University of Science and Technology Beijing，Beijing 　100083
    2.CSAE Automobile Innovation and Strategy Institute，Beijing 　102600
    3.Tsinghua University，State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy，Beijing 　100084
  • Received:2023-08-11 Online:2024-02-25 Published:2024-02-23
  • Contact: Yali Zheng,Hewu Wang E-mail:zhengyl@sae-china.org;wanghw@tsinghua.edu.cn

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摘要：

商用车碳减排已经成为我国道路交通减碳的关键瓶颈，新能源商用车被视作重型商用车减碳的重要途径，但是新能源商用车的市场渗透率远低于其他车辆部门；但与此同时，现阶段新能源零碳商用车的发展还存在着应用场景复杂、技术路径多样化、同时成本较高的显著的瓶颈。本研究构建了基于新能源汽车总拥有成本（total cost of ownership， TCO）、使用便利性等因素的多元Logit离散选择模型——零碳商用车市场演进模型（discrete choice-based market evolution of green truck model， DC-MEGT），使用自下向上的方法计算TCO，并将车辆使用便利性使用补能时间成本进行货币化量化，构建综合效用函数对纯电动车、燃料电池汽车及零碳燃料等不同动力类型从目前到2060年的市场渗透率演进情况进行预测分析。研究以重型长途牵引场景为例进行分析，结果表明2060年主要的技术路径包括燃料电池汽车、纯电动车、天然气及柴油车，占比分别为48%、28%、12%和10%。政策推广、技术进步、商业模式等因素的不确定性会引发纯电动车和燃料电池汽车2060年市场份额17%~19%的波动。

关键词: 新能源商用车, 市场渗透率, 离散选择模型, 总拥有成本, 使用便利性

Abstract:

Carbon reduction in commercial vehicles has become a key bottleneck in reducing carbon emission in China's road transportation. New energy commercial vehicles are seen as an important way to reduce carbon emission in heavy commercial vehicles， but the market penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is much lower than that of other vehicle sectors. However， at present， the development of new energy zero-emission commercial vehicles still faces significant bottlenecks such as complex application scenarios， diversified technological paths， and high cost. This study constructs a Discrete Choice-based Market Evolution of Green Truck Model （DC-MEGT）， a multi-dimensional Logit discrete choice model based on factors such as the total cost of ownership （TCO） and ease of use of new energy vehicles. TCO is calculated using a bottom-up approach， and the usage convenience is quantified and monetized by supplementary energy time cost. A comprehensive utility function is constructed to predict and analyze the market penetration rate evolution of different power types， such as pure electric vehicles， fuel cell vehicles， and zero-emission fuels from the present to 2060. The study analyzes the heavy-duty long-haul towing scenario as an example and finds that the main technology paths in 2060 include fuel cell vehicles， pure electric vehicles， natural gas vehicles， and diesel vehicles， accounting for 48%， 28%， 12%， and 10%， respectively. If the uncertainty of different factors such as policy promotion， technological progress， and business models is taken into account， the market share of pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles in 2060 may fluctuate by 17% ~ 19%.

Key words: new energy commercial vehicles, market penetration rate, discrete choice model, total cost of ownership, usage convenience