汽车工程

汽车工程 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 245-251.doi: 10.19562/j.chinasae.qcgc.2019.03.002

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基于贝叶斯网络的联网环境中跟车工况下的前车运动状态预测*

张金辉,李克强,罗禹贡,张书玮,李红   

  1. 清华大学,汽车安全与节能国家重点实验室,北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-27 出版日期:2019-03-25 发布日期:2019-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 李克强,教授,E-mail:likq@stinghua.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0100900)资助

Prediction of Preceding Car Motion Under Car-following Scenario in the Internet of Vehicle Based on Bayesian Network

Zhang Jinhui, Li Keqiang, Luo Yugong, Zhang Shuwei & Li Hong   

  1. Tsinghua University, State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Beijing 100084
  • Received:2018-04-27 Online:2019-03-25 Published:2019-03-25

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摘要： 车辆行驶过程中,前方车辆运动状态预测是车辆智能控制系统的重要研究部分。车辆运动状态受其驾驶员驾驶风格、道路状况、交通流、前方车辆运动速度和加速度等因素的影响,使车辆在未来一定时间段内的运动状态具有较大不确定性,给前方车辆的运动状态预测带来困难,因此本文中对跟车工况下前车运动状态预测进行研究。本文中在分析车辆跟车工况时的运动特性,采用贝叶斯网络对前方车辆运动速度进行预测,将获得的车辆跟车工况时的运动状态数据分为训练集和测试集。通过训练集辨识前车速度预测贝叶斯网络参数,通过测试集检验前车速度预测贝叶斯网络的预测效果。对前车未来0.1,0.5,1和2s时的运动速度进行预测,预测结果表明,前车的实际运动速度均在前车速度预测贝叶斯网络预测的95%置信区间内。

关键词: 智能驾驶, 状态预测, 车联网, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract: In the process of vehicle driving, the prediction of motion state of vehicle in front is an important research part of intelligent vehicle control system. Influenced by factors such as the driver's driving style, road condition, traffic flow, the speed and acceleration of the vehicle ahead, the motion state of the vehicle in a certain period of time in the future has great uncertainties, which brings difficulties to the prediction of the motion state of the vehicle ahead. This paper studies the prediction of the motion state of the vehicle ahead under the car-following conditions. In this paper, the motion characteristics of the vehicle under car-following conditions are analyzed, and Bayesian network is used to predict the speed of the vehicle ahead. The obtained motion state data of the vehicle under car-following conditions are divided into training set and test set. The training set is used to identify the parameters of the front vehicle speed for prediction of Bayesian network parameters, and the test set is used to verify the prediction effect of Bayesian network for front vehicle speed prediction. The prediction results show that the actual speed of the front vehicle is within 95% confidence interval predicted by Bayesian network for the prediction of the front vehicle speed in the next 0.1,0.5,1 and 2s

Key words: intelligent driving, state prediction, Internet of vehicle, Bayesian network