Abstract:

The traditional comparative analysis method of vehicle economy is influenced by vehicle configuration, size, weight and other factors, which is prone to draw the conclusion that the economy of ordinary vehicles is much higher than that of luxury vehicles. In order to conduct an in-depth and objective comparative analysis on the comprehensive economy of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles, a comprehensive economy prediction model of vehicles with different power systems is established and the comparative analysis and forecast of the comprehensive economy of the new energy vehicles (pure electric and fuel cell commercial vehicles) and the traditional fuel vehicles are made based on the model. In consideration of different driving range and different weight requirements of vehicles, the cost prediction model of vehicles with different power systems is established and data calculation and economy forecast are made on the power systems cost and the whole life-cycle use cost of pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and traditional fuel vehicles in the present, 2025, 2030 and 2035. The prediction results show that the power system cost and the whole life-cycle cost of pure electric vehicles and FCVs will decline further and be even lower than traditional fuel vehicles in the future, with FCVs cost declining even faster. The whole life-cycle use cost of FCVs will be gradually lower than that of pure electric vehicles and traditional fuel cars of the same type under the condition of long driving range and high heavy load, therefore, it is suggested that the development of heavy commercial vehicles with longer driving range requirements should be given priority to in China.

Key words: pure electric vehicles, FCVs, economy, prediction